To liberate territory, Ukraine should smash fortified Russian defenses

They do it by hand. At evening.

“Everybody’s palms shake,” mentioned the 42-year-old commander of engineers within the 1st Tank Brigade, whom The Washington Put up is figuring out solely by his name signal, Klimat, for safety causes.

Klimat mentioned this type of mine-clearing work has been ongoing for weeks, however he declined to explain exact places or strategies used to deactivate the mines. As soon as a path has been cleared, he mentioned, indicators are arrange — typically lighted, with the beams dealing with away from Russian positions — to indicate a path ahead.

That’s simply step one. Then comes the struggle in opposition to the Russians.

Exactly the place it’ll begin is not possible to know. However hypothesis has centered closely on the Zaporizhzhia area as a result of it’s a strategic lifeline for Russia’s occupation. If Ukraine pushes south by way of the area, it might lower off the “land bridge” connecting occupied Crimea with mainland Russia.

With the Kremlin hellbent on retaining the land it has stolen in Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces have ripped it aside, remodeling big expanses of once-sleepy agricultural fields right into a veritable fortress with webs of trenches and different obstacles that may be seen from house.

To retake territory and oust the Russians, the Ukrainians must punch by way of these fortifications. That requires particular coaching and tools in addition to cautious reconnaissance to discover a weak spot — most likely one in every of quite a few causes the long-awaited counteroffensive has not began but.

Serhii Matveichuk, a colonel in Ukraine’s Directorate of Engineer Troops, informed The Washington Put up that Russia had created a “huge system of engineering boundaries” that pose a “severe impediment to the mobility of troops.”

The target of Russia’s monumental fortification challenge is to gradual a possible assault and to channel any Ukrainian forces that break by way of right into a slim space. This might enable Russia’s reserves to regroup and provides its artillery time to strike the attackers, probably ending the counteroffensive earlier than it actually begins.

If it really works, it may very well be a massacre. “It’s lots like World Conflict I,” mentioned Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps officer and protection knowledgeable with the Middle for Strategic & Worldwide Research, evaluating it to the bloody stalemate of trench warfare in that battle over a century in the past. “If the Russians struggle onerous, it’ll be robust to interrupt by way of.”

Ukrainian officers declined to debate the specifics of any plan to push by way of Russian fortifications, frightened of releasing operational data that may very well be utilized by Russia. Matveichuk and different Ukrainian officers spoke to The Put up provided that their places not be revealed.

Ukrainian engineers and sappers are already at work, in some instances utilizing new tools designed to pierce these kinds of defenses, together with specifically modified automobiles based mostly on the famed Leopard 2 German battle tank.

However some analysts say that whereas Kyiv’s Western backers have centered on missiles, armored automobiles and ammunition, they haven’t dedicated the appropriate help to interrupt by way of Russia’s defenses. Matveichuk mentioned it was “problematic” that the Ukrainian military was wanting engineering tanks and different such instruments.

In line with Ukrainian troopers, Russia lays its mines in a sample: one line of antitank mines, a line of antipersonnel strains alongside booby traps, after which one other line of antitank mines. Drones can be utilized to identify the antitank mines, troopers say, however antipersonnel mines are more durable to search out.

As soon as the Ukrainians are by way of their very own strains and in potential sight of Russian forces, breaking by way of these minefields usually requires much less stealth and extra pace.

In concept, artillery fireplace can explode mines from afar. However artillery rounds are in restricted provide, and Ukrainian troopers mentioned it was not possible to make sure that all of the mines in an space are destroyed.

As an alternative, fashionable militaries use specifically designed tools like mechanized mine clearers, engineering tanks and line costs, that are units that use explosives linked to a line to clear a delegated space of mines.

Ukraine has its personal mine clearers, such because the UR-77 Meteorit, a Soviet-designed automobile that makes use of the identical chassis because the previous 2S1 howitzer. This closely armored automobile makes use of built-in line costs to clear areas as much as 300 ft forward of it. It’s also utilized by the Russian military.

Western nations have additionally despatched some fashionable engineering tanks, together with Leopard 2R mine-clearing tanks provided by Finland, that may plow by way of minefields. These automobiles, developed by Germany, are based mostly on the chassis of the well-known battle tank and use closely armored mine plows to detonate the mines of their path.

Matveichuk declined to debate what equipment can be utilized in a counteroffensive as a result of disclosures might end in “the enemy growing countermeasures.” Nevertheless, he famous that heavy engineering tanks just like the Leopard 2R have been significantly helpful as they can not solely clear mines and in addition push by way of different obstacles like fences and lumps.

However the most suitable choice for this work — the M1150 Assault Breacher Automobile, based mostly on the chassis of the American-made M1 Abrams battle tank — shouldn’t be accessible to Ukraine, Matveichuk mentioned. Washington has been urged to ship them however has not carried out so.

“Regardless of the numerous quantity of weapons offered to Ukraine to repel the aggressor’s assault, the problematic subject is the availability of engineering items with engineering tanks” and different applied sciences, Matveichuk wrote.

America has repeatedly listed “mine clearing tools” in its navy support for Ukraine, with out offering particulars. Open-source weapons trackers have noticed the M58 Mine Clearing Line Cost, also called the MICLIC, within the nation.

Steve Danner, a former U.S. Military engineer who now works as an infrastructure guide, mentioned different tools may very well be despatched: He pointed to a sort of U.S.-owned armored digger, the Israeli-developed IDF Caterpillar D9. They have been utilized in Iraq however at the moment are “simply rusting away” in storage in Kuwait, he mentioned.

“I’m actually nervous that Ukraine shouldn’t be geared up to cope with these in depth obstacles,” Danner mentioned.

Ukrainian troopers are all too conscious that an offensive this 12 months gained’t be so simple as the profitable counterattacks in opposition to Russian forces final fall.

“The enemy is studying from their errors,” mentioned Yuri, a 29-year-old unit commander with the first Tank Brigade who offered solely his first title for safety causes. “They’re higher ready.”

For Russia, the heavy, soiled work of fortification in Zaporizhzhia turned pressing after Ukraine pushed Moscow’s troops from the northern Kharkiv area and compelled them to retreat east throughout the Dnieper River within the southern Kherson area.

Although the trenches, ditches, minefields and fences are unfold all throughout occupied Ukraine now, Zaporizhzhia has seen the heaviest of the work.

Brady Africk, an open supply analyst who works for the American Enterprise Institute, mentioned that the heavy fortification mirrored the “comparatively flat topography which offers fewer pure obstacles than are current in occupied areas of japanese Ukraine” or that the Dnieper River offers in Kherson.

The problem for Russia is attempting to guess the place alongside the 600-mile-long entrance Ukraine will mount its assaults, however satellite tv for pc imagery exhibits Russia is acutely conscious that Zaporizhzhia may very well be a spotlight. Strains of fortification have been constructed not solely round Melitopol, a serious metropolis now serving as a Russian logistical hub within the south, but in addition alongside the roads to Crimea and on the peninsula itself.

If Ukrainian forces can discover a path by way of the minefields, they’ll then want to make use of a technique of mixed arms to shortly break by way of.

Trenches should be taken shortly by infantry with the help of artillery, earlier than hiding Russian troopers can use the dugouts to fireplace antitank missiles, Cancian mentioned. Ukrainian tanks might then push ahead together with engineering equipment, together with bridging automobiles that enable others to move over ditches and small rivers.

These items must transfer quick. Specialists mentioned even only one small breach within the enemy’s fortifications should be exploited with out hesitation. With Russian defenses stretched alongside the entrance, a quick Ukrainian assault might overwhelm them.

9 Ukrainian brigades have been coaching overseas in latest months. Cancian mentioned a number of of them will most likely act as “tip of the spear” within the assault.

“Then they will get into the ‘inexperienced fields past,’ as they are saying,” mentioned Cancian, referring to the elusive navy prize in World Conflict I trench warfare.

Specialists say that Russia may have at the least one line of reserves that may rush to the entrance to attempt to lower off a Ukrainian advance. They might effectively have extra.

“There’s lots round Melitopol,” mentioned James Rand, an analyst with the non-public intelligence agency Janes. “The Russians clearly suppose that the Ukrainians are going to come back south.”

Rand added that new weapons know-how just like the U.S.-provided Excessive Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and the more moderen Storm Shadow long-range missile system offered by Britain will affect the place Russia positions its reserves.

“The Russians are going to have to consider what they transfer again,” mentioned Rand, including that reserves might show to be a “massive juicy goal” for Storm Shadows, which have a variety of as much as 180 miles — placing Melitopol inside attain.

If they will push by way of, Ukraine must as soon as once more lay defenses, and the sappers can be again at work, this time laying mines. Ukraine has used previous Soviet-developed mines, together with the TM-62 antitank mine.

“We put a blanket on the mines so that they don’t get chilly,” Klimat, the engineers commander, joked as he confirmed off the mines, which have been saved in an previous GMZ-3 minelayer close by.

Once they lay the mines, they’ll hold information, he added, in case they need to discover a method by way of once more.