Animal Spirits: Able to Pop

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February 8, 2023

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Posted February 8, 2023 by sean

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Worth vs. Progress has stopped caring about rates of interest.

Final yr: “If charges are going increased, I wish to personal Worth, not Progress. As soon as charges begin falling once more, Progress will begin working once more.”

However charges ARE now falling…and Progress continues to be not working.

It is a Worth cycle. pic.twitter.com/9qsSgfDJQh

— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) February 3, 2023

“The market – rightly in our view – pale the hawkish jawboning, targeted on the Fed’s recognition that disinflation is underway and perceived that there’s a path to a pause after yet another 25bp in March”

Evercore

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) February 2, 2023

Fed Chair Powell is optimistic a couple of smooth touchdown:

“I proceed to assume there is a path to getting inflation again right down to 2% with out a actually important financial decline or a major improve in unemployment.”

“This isn’t like the opposite enterprise cycles in so some ways” pic.twitter.com/F7acCKJOVz

— Heather Lengthy (@byHeatherLong) February 1, 2023

I’m a provide chain skilled and I’ve by no means seen the labor market so determined for staff. So many ppl out and in of tolls rapidly as nicely.

I don’t see this ending quickly both.

— caseyjones.eth 🍌 (@DDreery) February 3, 2023

A whole lot of discuss how new car costs have surged over the previous couple years — right here’s new car costs as measured by the CPI divided by common hourly earnings. Undecided we get fortunate like we did from 1995-2020 once more: pic.twitter.com/ftg6ppje3K

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) February 4, 2023

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. demand for companies, particularly journey, held up nicely final yr however we predict customers and corporations will tighten their belts as we progress via 2023.” [Wilson] $JETS $XAL pic.twitter.com/l8rDhAteKB

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 23, 2023

For each headline you learn in regards to the surge in layoffs, it is price turning to nationally consultant information to get some context. Here is the newest numbers. pic.twitter.com/xKI9GuonlD

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 1, 2023

New houses priced beneath $200K are actually 0% of the market.
They have been 40% of the market one decade in the past.

$500K+ houses have grown from 17% of the market to 38% of the market throughout Covid.

Anticipate each of those tendencies to reverse this yr. pic.twitter.com/Q8Ftcojg2G

— John Burns (@johnburnsjbrec) January 31, 2023

1) Stripe doing a clear down spherical is wholesome for ecosystem.

Many corporations that raised at absurd multiples (avg SaaS deal in 21 was carried out at 114x ARR per IVP) might want to increase once more quickly.

Majority will likely be down rounds or closely structured. Each choices must be thought of.

— Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) January 31, 2023

woooow podcast creation is v down. as a listener, that hurts my hopes for higher discovery instruments much more. as a podcaster, i see this as a possibility to face out

chart through @TheSplit_ pic.twitter.com/rDZINV650f

— natasha mascarenhas (@nmasc_) February 2, 2023

Median weekly earnings for People working full-time is $1,084, or $4,336 each 4 weeks. A median-earning couple would thus have round $9,000 of revenue each month, making median hire simply 22% of their revenuehttps://t.co/UG207jgDNz https://t.co/jLioK2EvAV

— Jeremy Horpedahl 🤷‍♂️ (@jmhorp) January 30, 2023

@michaelbatnick @awealthofcs only a PSA: a number of months again you guys have been attempting to decipher the definition of “gasoline lighting”. the previous lady who hit michael within the parking zone is a textbook instance of gaslighting lol

— Tucker Donahue (@TuckeRyan) February 1, 2023

ChatGPT reaches 100 million energetic customers in 2 months, the quickest rising shopper app in historical past.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 3, 2023

Enjoyable take: Approximate variety of mentions of “AI” in earnings calls within the newest earnings name: $GOOG: 62 Occasions$META: 33 Occasions$MSFT: 31 Occasions$AAPL: 2 Occasions$AMZN: 0 Occasions

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) February 3, 2023

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