The investor narrative has modified over the past couple of weeks. It went from everybody considering a recession was a fait accompli to maaaaybe we will really escape its grip.
Inflation is coming down. Wage development is decelerating. Exercise is returning to the housing market. And the labor market remains to be extremely robust. Put all these collectively and it seems like the chances of a tender touchdown are growing. Each James Bullard and Larry Summers got here out this week saying as a lot.
However then we received sooner or later of softening information, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, its worst day in over a month. And so the narrative modified once more. Overlook concerning the tender touchdown. Unhealthy information is unhealthy information once more.
Effectively, right here we’re two days faraway from the narrative shift, and shares had a heck of a day. The S&P 500 gained 1.9%, and the Nasdaq-100 gained 2.7%. Google introduced huge layoffs, and so the inventory had its finest day since November, naturally. So, is unhealthy information excellent news once more? What to imagine?
I chase narratives like all people else, however you wouldn’t comprehend it based mostly on my portfolio. And that’s the way in which it needs to be, for essentially the most half. So put together your self as a result of there might be a whole lot of backwards and forwards this yr as new info involves gentle. All the time however particularly now, the important thing to investing is to not chop your self up because the market struggles to decide on a course. Don’t get caught within the narrative vortex.
Have a great weekend.